Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 0.012195 0.013788 0.015511 0.017515 0.019781 0.022265 0.025195
2025-11-02 0.009586 0.011760 0.014309 0.017523 0.021469 0.026161 0.032173
2025-11-09 0.007982 0.010352 0.013291 0.017206 0.022293 0.028689 0.037361
2025-11-16 0.007054 0.009576 0.012848 0.017410 0.023618 0.031792 0.043405
2025-11-23 0.006223 0.008787 0.012248 0.017266 0.024376 0.034117 0.048531
2025-11-30 0.005734 0.008389 0.012100 0.017675 0.025864 0.037495 0.055345
2025-12-07 0.005054 0.007636 0.011360 0.017138 0.025908 0.038776 0.059195
2025-12-14 0.004555 0.007089 0.010853 0.016870 0.026285 0.040523 0.063824
2025-12-21 0.004076 0.006520 0.010254 0.016389 0.026265 0.041628 0.067507
2025-12-28 0.003897 0.006401 0.010327 0.016951 0.027908 0.045418 0.075743
2026-01-04 0.003686 0.006207 0.010260 0.017270 0.029169 0.048676 0.083357
2026-01-11 0.003515 0.006061 0.010252 0.017678 0.030595 0.052297 0.091860
2026-01-18 0.003256 0.005749 0.009950 0.017574 0.031163 0.054556 0.098285
2026-01-25 0.003040 0.005493 0.009722 0.017577 0.031917 0.057197 0.105622
2026-02-01 0.002795 0.005163 0.009335 0.017260 0.032059 0.058749 0.111086
2026-02-08 0.002653 0.005007 0.009243 0.017464 0.033164 0.062111 0.120187
2026-02-15 0.002474 0.004767 0.008977 0.017320 0.033595 0.064250 0.127115
2026-02-22 0.002385 0.004688 0.009003 0.017730 0.035114 0.068549 0.138610
2026-03-01 0.002185 0.004376 0.008562 0.017192 0.034727 0.069129 0.142707
2026-03-08 0.002034 0.004151 0.008270 0.016923 0.034849 0.070707 0.148949
2026-03-15 0.001873 0.003891 0.007888 0.016440 0.034493 0.071285 0.153140
2026-03-22 0.001835 0.003882 0.008009 0.017004 0.036352 0.076534 0.167691
2026-03-29 0.001774 0.003819 0.008016 0.017324 0.037717 0.080851 0.180575